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Gardening Advice & Tips for Irish Gardeners

The Summer Wash Out. Can Anyone Make Weather Predictions?

When I heard the June had been the wettest month on record I breathe a sigh of relief. This might seem strange, but really, having gone through such a miserable month and then being told that; ok, ‘that’s the worst it has ever been’, well, then I can at least assume that things can only get better!

So here we are a new month and a new beginning! Well, not exactly the rain has only seemed to get stronger and I suppose more predictable. That’s right, it’s raining today and it will probably be raining, well, until late next week! But for those of you who rely on the weather to make a living it can be hard to plan your day ahead in between the rain showers. So the Garden Shop wants to give you the best advice on how to predict the weather in your area:

The first place I will look when planning my weeks work is the internet, there are a number of weather websites that give detailed information on weather patterns for Ireland. The top two for me are: Met Eireann, and then a Norwegian site; Yr.no. Another option is Accuweather, but I find Accuweather to not be ‘Accu’rate, even though they do have a very nice mobile phone app.

Yr.no has a lot of advantages over Met Eireann, but Met.ie is often more accurate and is made specifically for the Irish market. Yr.no can, however, give you a rough idea about the weather for the next 10 days. (Just for the record, I’ve just checked and Yr.no is forecasting that Portarlington will get 20mm of rain on Friday the 20th of July 2012... watch this space..) To use Yr.no simply ­type the name into your search engine and then enter the name of your town or area into the search bar. The website will give you an hour by hour breakdown for the next 3 days as well as a handy animated map of Ireland showing weather details for 24 hours. The site also has a long term forecast for 10 days.

Met Eireann however is the website you can set your watch by, of course nobody can accurately predict where a rain cloud will dispense its load, but Met Eireann will come the closest for Irish weather. There is a lot of detail on their site, including past weather history, sea area forecasts and information on Ireland’s climate. But for forecasting weather the site is great. The National weather link gives a good breakdown of weather for the next 4 to 5 days. There is also a 5 day forecast which seems to change every day so check regularly. For a short term forecast the 3 hour link is handy and reliable. In generally Met.ie is accurate and its forecasts seem to air on the side of caution and assume rain quicker than suggesting dry. For a more detailed insight, Met.ie have satellite images of Europe and Ireland an Atlantic charts to view. 

If you want more information from the internet then; Weathergossip.com predicts long range weather forecasts but is rarely right. As the weather presenters on RTE always tell us, it is virtually impossible to predict weather beyond 10 days time. 

Now, if you want to fly in the face of all those scientists, experts and large probability computer engines that forecast our weather, there is a more hands on approach to predicting the weather. Some tips on doing so include the following:

  • Remember, that Ireland is an Atlantic island, and most of our wet weather comes in from the west where clouds pick up rain from the Atlantic and drop rain once they reach land. Therefore we can say that the West coast gets the most rain in Ireland and that westerly winds generally bring rain from the west over the remainder of the country. If this rain clouds are small, it is likely that most will have passed before reaching the midlands or east coast.
  • Low pressure brings rain; this is because, in low pressure, air rises which cools to form rain. So if there is low pressure over the Atlantic, then rain will from, is the wind is westerly, that rain will fall on Ireland.
  • Continental weather is generally drier, while Southern continental weather is generally drier and warmer, so if we get winds coming for the east (easterly winds) its likely to bring warm and dry weather.
  • Northerly winds are cold! Those are the ones that want to tear off your nose in winter!
  • Just having a look around. When I’m in the garden I can tell if it’s going to rain within the next hour. Simply determine the wind direction and assess the clouds coming your way. If you see an ominous black, brown or darkish grey cloud coming then it’s likely to rain. The wind speed will determine how long you have before you have to take shelter. But even this doesn’t always materialize; as rain clouds can pass over head or disperse before reaching you. If the clouds are low (close to the horizon) then rain is more likely.
  • And lastly the sorry fact is that the warmer the weather the more likely that wind will bring rain with it. Our summers are likely to be wetter than our winters.
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